If you read the BasketCases blog, you know I write about basketball, officiating and sportsmanship issues. This week, I am throwing a curve ball and writing about football.
A disclaimer: I have been a New England Patriots fan since December 1982 when the Pats beat Miami 3-0 during a blizzard in Foxborough in which a prisoner on work-release drove a snowplow onto the field on his own volition. He cleared a path, allowing Pats’ left-footed placekicker John Smith to kick a fourth-quarter field goal. I was 12 at the time and remember Brent Musburger on the CBS Post-Game Show saying “You are not going to believe what is going on in New England. It’s been snowing in Foxborough all day…”
Needless to say, I was glued to my TV Sunday night as the Pats played the Colts in a classic game in which the Colts won 35-34. As everyone who watches football knows by now, the Patriots faced a 4th and 1 1/2 with just over two minutes to go at their own 28 1/2 yard line. Patriots coach Bill Belichick elected to go for the first down instead of punting the ball with a six-point lead and giving the ball back to Peyton Manning with two minutes and one time-out remaining.
Let me summarize my position in seven words: Bill Belichick absolutely made the RIGHT CALL! I loved that call and if the exact same situation presented itself again, they should do it again. I know I am in the minority on this, but let me explain.
When that Pats went a little conservative after a Manning pick (instead of going for the jugular) and kicking a field goal to go up 13 points with about five minutes left to play, I expected two outcomes. Indy would score a touchdown before the two-minute warning, forcing New England to pick up a first down to win the game. Otherwise, if Indy got the ball back they would score again and win 35-34.
As expected, Manning marched right down the field and scored a touchdown with 2:23 left to play. Scoring in front of the two-minute warning proved to be huge. When New England got the ball back, they inexcusably called its second time-out before their first down play. Following the time-out, they ran the ball for no gain (hated the play call, especially after wasting a time-out, I think you try for a safe pass to get five to seven yards there.)
On second down, Pats quarterback Tom Brady threw a pass to Wes Welker, which picked up about eight yards, leaving third and a short two. At that time, I told my wife that New England should consider this four-down territory and potentially run on third (and fourth down, if necessary) to pick up less than two yards. On third down, Brady got blitzed and almost threw a pick, leaving fourth down and less than two yards to go.
Before fourth down, Belichick called his final time-out to make sure everything was in place to try and win the game. If New England would have picked up that first down, they probably would have punted to Indianapolis with about 25 seconds left in the game. Even the great Peyton Manning wouldn’t have scored a touchdown in that situation.
Here is why going for it on fourth down and short was the Right Call:
* First of all, not only do I think he made the right call, but I think it worked. The ball may not have been spotted correctly. Replays clearly show that Kevin Faulk started to catch the ball at the 30 1/2 yard line. He bobbled it once and established control with his left hand directly over the 30 yard line before he was pushed back by the Colts’ defender. The line judge immediately came out with a “juggling” signal and spotted the play short of the 30. The officials didn’t even have to measure because the kickoff was a touchback. That meant the Pats started at the 20 and needed to reach the 30 yard line for a first down. I’m not a football official and I have never read an football rulebook, but I would think that once you establish possession after the bobble (which Faulk clearly did at the 30 on replay), then you should be given that forward progress (if not, the ball was spotted correctly and this point is moot). In defense of the officials, the line judge had the almost impossible task of trying to see through the players to truly see when the bobble ended. Unfortunately for New England, the play started before the two-minute warning. That means Belichick couldn’t challenge the play because he was out of time-outs. If it was the first play after the two-minute warning, there would have been a booth review. It would have been interesting to see if referee Scott Green would have had enough “evidence” to give the Pats the first down. We will never know. One way to avoid all this is to have Faulk run his route a yard deeper. That would have eliminated the potential human error in spotting the football.
* I loved the call because Belichick went for the win. In the NFL, we see almost all head coaches (Brad Childress and Mike Singletary specifically come to mind) playing NOT TO LOSE. If the Pats pick up the first down, they win the game.
* You have to understand the situation. If you give the ball back to Peyton Manning with two minutes and a time-out left, he would have marched the Colts right down the field and scored a game-winning touchdown, I’m sure of it. Could there have been a tipped pass or a crucial drop? Of course, but the odds were overwhelmingly in Manning’s favor, especially after two quick, successful 79-yard drives in the fourth quarter already. He had plenty of time to execute. New England’s defense was gassed (and their D-line depleted). The reason teams don’t rally in that situation is, either they get pressured and/or sacked or because their quarterback just isn’t that good. This is a sitaution in which no one in the league is better than Peyton Manning and New England had no chance of putting any pressure on him.
* Peyton Manning is the only quarterback in the league that you respect so much that you don’t want him to get the ball back. You punt to every other quarterback there. Also, I think you punt if New England only leads by three and hope the Colts play conservative and become satisfied with a field goal to send it into overtime.
* A history lesson. This game was eerily similar to the AFC championship game three years ago in which the Pats had a huge lead before losing it. The Pats led by four with two minutes to play. It was third down and 5. Brady and Troy Brown miscommunicated on an option route. If the Pats picked up the first down, they would have gone to the Super Bowl as the Colts were out of time-outs. They punted the ball near mid-field and Manning dissected the Pats for the winning touchdown. I’m sure Belichick stewed all off-season that he should have gambled to try and win the game on fourth down there instead of playing not to lose.
* The Pats defense just isn’t that good. Not only were the Pats depleted and tired, their defense is made up of a lot of good players, but only one great player (nose guard Vince Wilfork, who is a beast, but primarily at stopping the run). They no longer have studs like Vrabel, Harrison, Bruschi, McGinnest, Law, Samuel, etc. to make a play to win the game. The defense played great to force the Colts to punt seven times, but you can only hold off Manning for so long.
* Belichick has successfully gone for it before on fourth and short in his own territory against the Colts. In one the AFC championship games against the Colts in Foxborough (I think it was the 21-3 victory), the Pats faced fourth and less than a yard on their opening drive. Belichick went for it. The Pats picked up a first down and went on to score a touchdown on that drive to set the tempo for the day. The beauty of that play was the Pats didn’t waste a time-out, lined up in a tight formation and then spread everyone out in a four- or five-receiver set, before Brady successfully executed a quarterback sneak for the first down (clearly, the Pats were prepared for that play). New England also went for it on 4th and 1 at its own 24 (in the third quarter) earlier this year against Atlanta. That was successful and led to a field goal in New England’s 26-10 victory.
All I know is most of America think Belichick screwed up and lost the game for the Pats. He says that call gave his team the best opportunity to win the game. I totally agree. Put the ball in Tom Brady’s hands and go for the win — even in your own territory. Bill Belichick absolutely made the Right Call.
And for those thinking I am drinking the Patriots kool-aid, I would have felt the same way if Norv Turner made the same call.